Climate change impact, adaptation and associated costs for coastal risks in France

¹ BRGM
g.lecozannet@brgm.fr ; n.lenotre@brgm.fr ; m.yates@brgm.fr
² Météo-France
philippe.nacass@meteo.fr
³ MEEDDM/SGDD/SoES
sebastien.colas@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
⁴ Cetmef
Celine.Perherin@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
⁵ MEEDDM/CGDD/SEEI
cedric.peinturier@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
⁶ DREAL/LR
Cyril.Vanroye@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
⁷ MRN
chadi.hajji@mrn.gpsa.fr ; jerome.chemitte@mrn.gpsa.fr
⁸
bernard.poupat@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
⁹ MEEDDM/DGPR/SRNH/BRM
Catherine.Azzam@developpement-durable.gouv.fr
¹⁰ CETE Méditerranée
Frederic.Pons@developpement-durable.gouv.fr

Abstract

As part of the French climate plan, an inter-ministerial working group called “climate change impacts, adaptations, and associated costs in France” was created to evaluate potential damages caused by climate change and to identify possible mitigation measures. Seven thematic committees were organised, including the “natural risks, insurance and adaptation to climate change” committee, within which the coastal risks working group focused on the impacts of erosion and coastal inundation. This paper presents the methodology, results, and recommendation of this working group.

A risk estimation methodology - where risk is considered as a combination of hazard and the vulnerability of the exposed assets – was developed at a regional scale for LanguedocRoussillon in 2100. Sea level rise and hazard evolution scenarios were used to estimate the costs of damages to exposed assets. The results serve as a rough estimate of the direct and indirect tangible costs potentially induced by coastal erosion and inundation in the 21st century. This paper discusses the results, addressing the uncertainties in each step of the assessment, specifically identifying the factors that were not taken into account and the limitations of the data sets. Finally, recommendations of adaptation measures, spatial planning, and short-term risk management were produced.